By Scott Gilfoid, first uploaded on Boxing News 24.
Former super middleweight champion Carl Froch says Mexican star Saul “Canelo” Alvarez will defeat middleweight champion Gennady “GGG” Golovkin this Saturday night with constant pressure and accuracy in their fight at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada.
Canelo and GGG will be fighting on September 16 on HBO pay-per-view. Despite Froch’s pick of Alvarez as the winner, the odds-makers still have Golovkin as the favorite. Canelo may have hurt his chances of winning by going on a body-building kick lately, adding a great deal of muscle weight that may turn out to be a nightmare for him in the later rounds.
It’s stupid of Canelo (49-1-1, 34 KOs) to have selected this point in his career to add 15 pounds of muscle weight overnight in just one training camp. That’s youth though. The younger fighters tend to do outrageous things, like adding a ton of useless muscle weight, thinking that more is better. I think Canelo is going to get bad lesson this Saturday night that you don’t change your physique before a big fight by adding a huge amount of muscle weight.
“Canelo-Triple G, this is going to be a close fight,” said Carl Froch to IFL TV. “I think it’s going to be a close fight, a really interesting fight where both guys get hit. Triple G gets hit a lot with shots. His defense is good, but he’s getting a bit old. He gets hit with shots, but he can take them. Canelo will let the shots go. Triple G will land shots as well, and he’s a good puncher. I think this fight is going to be very close. I think Canelo is going to have the edge. It’s going to be close in this one, and of course and upset. It would be an upset if Golovkin loses. If anyone can do it, Canelo can,” said Froch.
Froch could be right about this fight being a close one, but I don’t see it going to the scorecards. As much as Froch believes it will go the distance, I don’t see that happening. Golovkin REALLY wants a knockout in this fight, and he’s not going to allow it to go to the scorecards. As such, either Golovkin knockouts out Canelo or he’ll get knocked out. Froch doesn’t think Golovkin can be knocked out. I disagree with him. I think he can.
Kell Brook looked like he had Golovkin in a vulnerable position in their fight last year in the 2nd round. If Brook had just kept coming forward and thrown 15-20 punches in a row, I think he would have gotten a stoppage with the referee pulling the plug on the fight. The only thing I question about Canelo is his ability to put that many punches together without gassing in a major way. Believe me; if Canelo gases against Golovkin, it’s all over.
Golovkin will knock him out with body shots while Canelo is gasping for breath like a giant gold fish against the ropes. Canelo cannot afford to empty out his gas tank against Golovkin if he wants to get the win. The best way for Canelo to win is for him to box, move, and tie up Golovkin. Clinching didn’t work for Martin Murray in his fight with Golovkin, but it might work for Canelo if he mixes in speedy combinations.
”Alvarez will show you,” said Froch in saying that Canelo will show how to beat Golovkin. ”Alvarez may not beat him, but he will show you how to beat him. It’ll be work rate, and I’ll be accuracy and he will be coming with pressure for 12 rounds,” said Froch.
We’ll see if Canelo can show how to beat Golovkin. Danny Jacobs showed how to beat Golovkin by moving, jabbing and throwing speedy combinations. Canelo can’t move worth a lick, so that option is out. Canelo can throw fast combinations, but he doesn’t have the arm length to jab Golovkin unless h stays in close. If Golovkin is going to throw combinations, it’s going to take away Canelo’s jab. He can’t throw jabs if he’s dealing with enormous power shots being bounced off his ribs.
I honestly think Golovkin is going to attack Canelo to the body in this fight instead of going for his head. Canelo will be moving his head all night, leaving his wide body open to body shot’s, which he will never be able to avoid. Canelo doesn’t have a thin torso, and his footwork is poor. He can’t avoid body shots. He can lean away and move his head to avoid shots upstairs, but not to the body. That’s where Canelo had problems in the Austin Trout fight. Canelo also is not too good at dealing with jabs.
If Golovkin uses that weapon, it’s possible he could fight well enough to win a decision. I’m not sure if the Nevada judges will give Golovkin a decision over a popular fighter like Canelo, who brings a lot of money to Las Vegas each time he fights. It would surprise me if Golovkin is given a decision over Canelo. I don’t see it happening.
”I don’t think he’ll knock Gennady Golovkin out,” said Froch. ”He’s a tough kid from Kazakhstan. He’s a hard person, so I don’t think he’s going to get ironed out. I really don’t, but I think he’s going to get outpointed. He can be outpointed, because he gets hit with a lot of shots. He’s not going to have to go looking for him. You throw shots at Golovkin, and a lot of the shots land. You see him get hit, especially as he’s gotten older. Alvarez will land shots,” said Froch.
It’s academic that Canelo won’t be able to knockout Golovkin. He couldn’t knockout lesser fighters in Julio Cesar Chavez Jr., Miguel Cotto and Erislandy Lara, so he’s not going to be able to KO Golovkin. If Canelo goes for a knockout on Saturday, he might get hit with something to the body that will change the outcome of the fight. Canelo will start the fight thinking knockout, but once he gets hit with a hard body shot from Golovkin, he’ll change his tactics and try and win a decision. That’s common sense. Canelo does not like getting hit to the body. That’s his Achilles heel.