By Jim Dower, first uploaded onBoxing News 24.
Saul “Canelo” Alvarez will be worn down from the pressure and the body punches from Gennady “GGG” Golovkin and stopped in the 10th or 11th round, according to trainer Abel Sanchez. He doesn’t believe that Canelo will be able to handle the “presence” from Triple G, as he’s going to be right in front of him during every second of their fight, hitting him with hard shots to the body and forcing him to always defend.
Sanchez says Golovkin is on another level talent wise compared Canelo.
Golovkin will be defending his IBF, IBO and WBA middleweight titles against Canelo this Saturday night on September 16 on HBO pay-per-view from the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada. Golovkin, 35, is the favorite to win the fight, but a lot boxers and boxing fans want Canelo to win because they like him a lot.
Canelo represents money due to his huge fan base. For that reason, it’s thought that if the Canelo-Golovkin fight is close, it will go to Canelo. One interesting thing to note is Canelo has his name mentioned before Golovkin in the promotion of the fight despite him being the challenger. Canelo is getting the most money, and he’s the A-side guy. Boxing is a lot different from other sports like the NBA and the NFL.
Sanchez picks Golovkin over Golovkin in many areas from power to ring generalship. He sees Canelo as having the better experience at the pro level compared to Golovkin, but this is one of rare areas where Sanchez feels Canelo rates higher than Golovkin.
“I think people confuse speed with flashiness,” said GGG’s trainer Abel Sanchez to Fighthub in discussing the speed difference between Canelo and Golovkin. “I think the speed has a lot to do with technique and timing more than anything. I think it’s in the middle somewhere, because Gennady’s timing is impeccable,” said Sanchez.
Canelo has the speed advantage over Golovkin, but Sanchez sees the speed as being negated by Golovkin’s timing. He showed in his fight with Danny Jacobs that he was able to hit him repeatedly with jabs to the head when he was trying to come forward to land one of his fast power shots. Jacobs had the speed advantage, but he landed very punches. A lot of the shots that were credited to Jacobs as having landed was punches that hit Golovkin’s gloves.
”I would say Gennady obviously has the power advantage in this fight,” said Sanchez. “Gennady has fought over 350 amateur fights. His defense is a lot better than people give him credit for. When you start comparing defense as far as people getting hit, I believe that CompuBox had him in the top 3 with [Andre] Ward and [Guillermo] Rigondeaux below him in defense, as far as connect percentages. Because of his style, he’s a come forward fighter, so you assume he’s getting hit more, but everybody in boxing gets hit. But like I said, CompuBox had him at the top, so I’d say their defenses are equal also,” said Sanchez in rating GGG’s defense on the same level as Canelo.
Sanchez rates the defensive skills of Canelo and Golovkin being the same. I think most boxing fans would pick Canelo as having the better defense. Sanchez rates sees them as being equal due to how good Golovkin is in picking off punches on his gloves. Golovkin is a come forward fighter, which puts him in the line of fire on a frequent basis. Golovkin wants to knockout his opponents. because he realizes that he wins fans with his knockouts. Canelo has a little easier. He has a built-in fan base in the U.S, a large one, who follow him no matter if he knocks out his opponents or not. Golovkin must win over the boxing fans the hard way in knocking guys out. Golvokin puts himself in the line of fire to score knockouts. Canelo can play it safe and focus on defense, and he passively keeps his fans in place.
“That has to go to Golovkin also,” said Sanchez in rating Golovkin’s technique as better than Canelo. “Everybody Golovkin fights talks about how sound he is. He’s never out of position. He’s always ready to punch. His punches are landed with knuckles; whereas Canelo is sometimes leaning back, leaning over, and he slaps a lot with his shots. So I would say it has to go to Golovkin. The footwork, I think they’ve said that there hasn’t been a fighter that cuts off the ring as good as Golovkin does and be in the position to punch like Golovkin does. I’m not saying it because of me. I’m saying it because it’s being said. So, I’d say footwork has to go to Golovkin also,” said Sanchez.
On Saturday night, Canelo is going to have to be careful with the way he leans backwards so much to avoid shots. If Canelo spends too much time trying to avoid getting hit with head shots, he could leave his midsection open to Golovkin’s power punches. Golovkin has knocked out a few fighters with body shots during his career. He dropped Martin Murray with a hard body shot in round 4, and Murray is a fighter with great punch resistance. Getting hit to the body is obviously a different story than getting hit to the head.
“I’d say that Canelo got hurt by Jose Cotto, but he was very young,” said Sanchez.” I’d say it goes both ways. I’d say the chin is even because Canelo hasn’t shown any weakness. He’s gotten hit by some great guys and never wobbled. Gennady has the amateur experience, but Canelo has the professional experience. I’d have to give it to Golovkin, because of what he’s shown in the past,” said Sanchez in rating him above Canelo in the ring control category. “Everyone he fights, he controls. He controls their movement. He controls their position. He controls where he wants to put them. I think Canelo has a tendency to let people take him to the ropes. That just tells me that he’s resting, that he’s not sure what he wants to do. So I’d have to say it goes to Golovkin,” said Sanchez in talking about which fighter has the advantage in ring control.
Canelo should stay off the ropes against Gennady. He cannot let Golovkin back him up against the ropes, because it’ll be target practice for Golovkin if he traps Canelo there. That goes for Canelo not backing up willingly to the ropes. He’s going to have to break that habit for the Golovkin fight, because he’ll increase his chances of getting knocked out if he does that. Canelo isn’t fighting Amir Khan, Liam Smith or James Kirkland on Saturday. Against those guys, Canelo could back up against the ropes and play his counter punch game. Canelo likes to take rest breaks against the ropes, but he also has learned how to set traps for his opponents from that area of the ring. It might not work for Canelo against Golovkin.
Canelo will obviously catch Golovkin with some shots initially when he starts fighting off the ropes, but Golovkin will learn from it and take that away from him as the fight goes on. So instead of Canelo setting traps for Golovkin against the ropes, he’s going to be getting bludgeoned and hurt. That’s why it’s a bad idea for Canelo to spend much time against the ropes in this fight.
“I think presence is going to be the key,” said Sanchez in saying the GGG’s presence will be a factor in him beating Canelo. “I think Golovkin being there, if you listen to the Peter Quillin interview, he said that Canelo doesn’t have to worry about the power at the beginning. What he has to worry about is Golovkin’s presence, because he’ll always be there. When you least expect him, he’s always there. So I think presence is the X-factor that will wear Golovkin out mentally,” said Sanchez.
The pressure that Golovkin puts on Canelo is a 2-way street. It could hurt Golovkin as well, because he’ll be getting hit in return by Canelo. Someone is going to get worn out between them if Golovkin is constantly putting pressure on Canelo. Golovkin is used to this way of fighting, however, that will give him an advantage. Canelo hasn’t had to deal with a good fighter pressuring him during his entire career. Canelo has only fought a small handful of good fighters during his 12-year pro career, and those guys weren’t pressure fighters. Julio Cesar Chavez Jr., who Canelo recently beat, used to be a pressure fighter, but he was a shot fighter by the time Canelo fought him last May.
“I think Canelo has matured a lot,” said Sanchez.I think Canelo has got a lot better, but I think the presence and the wearing down by punches on several places on his body will wear him down and he’ll get stopped somewhere late in the fight in the 10th or 11th. And if it’s a decision, it’s Golovkin going away, and maybe knocks him down a couple of times and hurts him and hurts him,” said Sanchez in predicting a possible scenario where Golovkin beats Canelo by a decision. “But I think the presence will be the key because Canelo will wear out eventually. Obviously, I teach and coach guys to knock guys out. I would love for it to be a knockout, but if it goes to a decision, we’re confident that the Nevada Commission and the judges they’ve approved and Kenny Bayless, the referee, is a very good referee, will be fair. If the other guy wins, the other guy wins, but we’re confident that the Nevada Commission will not have a controversy on our hands,” said Sanchez.
Sanchez just gave away the fight plan for Golovkin in how he plans on trying to beat Canelo. Golovkin is going to be targeting Canelo’s body. It’s not surprising. Canelo uses so much head movement nowadays that it’s a waste of time to try and hit him with head shots. The head movement is almost unnecessary for Canelo, because he takes a good shot well without getting hurt.
“That’s the way the fight is. Canelo is very good, but he’s not on the level of Golovkin,”said Sanchez.